Predicting the Playoffs

Alright it's Stanley Cup Playoff time and that means every hockey blog must make its predictions on what is going to happen. This blog is no different so here it is round 1 predictions with breakdowns.

Eastern Conference:
#1 Buffalo Sabres vs. #8 Islanders: The Islanders are on a Cinderella run into the playoffs hitting a hot streak in the final week of the season to get it. Now Ted Nolan and the Islanders will take on the team that fired him 9 years ago after winning the Jack Adams Award. If ever there was an upset story this is it. You have the old coach who was in exile coming back to face his old team. You have the 15 year franchise goalie getting injured jeopardizing a playoff spot. His backup then struggles and then a 5 foot 10 call up from the AHL named Wade Dubielewicz comes in and saves the season. AS for the Sabres they were the unquestioned number 1 team all year. That said they aren't as good as everyone is making them out to be. They road the loser point and shootout to the Presidents trophy. They are certainly the best team in the east but they aren't any better than other number 1 seed that has been upset in the past. If they were playing the Leafs I would say Sabres in 5. That said I have a gut feeling (or maybe I want to see the Sabres out as soon as possible because they scare me) that the Isles are going to pull the upset.

Islanders in 7

#2 New Jersey Devils vs #7 Tampa Bay Lightning: I already talked about the keys to this series in the Devils will play the Lightning post. To repeat though Tampa has the worst goaltending in the playoffs. The Devils just need to get shots on net (which can be a struggle at time). I think Madden and Pandolfo can shut down Lecavier and St. Louis and Brodeur can take care of the rest. If Lecavier or St. Louis get extremely hot Tampa can overcome their goalie but I think they can be held in check.

New Jersey in 6

#3 Atlanta Thrashers vs #6 New York Rangers: I said in the middle of the year that Atlanta would be 1 round and done because of their defense. Now they improved it a little at the deadline but it still isn't good. On top of that they are untested and facing a hot goalie in Lundqvist. If Lundqvist cools off this could be a 7 game series and Atlanta would have a shot.

Rangers in 6

#4 Ottawa Senators vs #5 Pittsburgh Penguins: This is about as even a series as there is. Both teams have explosive offenses and goaltending that has some questions when it comes to the playoffs. Emery had a bad post-season last year and Fluery has never played in the playoffs. This series is going to distance possible even overtime in game 7. I like the young guns in Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh in 7

Western Conference:
#1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #8 Calgary Flames: Calgary is better than your typical 8 seed but they have struggled on the road this year. Although they have played better on the road recently I think the struggles will haunt them in this series. Detroit is a tougher team than in the past and will overcome their recent first round problems.

Detroit in 5

#2 Anaheim Ducks vs #7 Minnesota Wild: This will be a defensive series. The Ducks are built on defense with Niedermayer and Pronger. The Wild well are coached by Lemaire. The Wild really only have 1 offensive line which will be easy for the Ducks to shutdown.

Anaheim in 5

#3 Vancouver Canucks vs #6 Dallas Stars: This series features 2 goalies looking to prove themselves. In Vancouver you have Luongo who is making his first playoff appearance. In Dallas you have Marty Turco who is looking to make up for past playoff disappointments. I think this series goes the distance but Turco finally rises to the occasion.

Dallas in 7

#4 Nashville Predators vs #5 San Jose Sharks: If any team got screwed by the NHL points format it's the Sharks. They won 49 games (the most) by actually playing hockey. If it wasn't for the shootout and loser point the Sharks would have been the Presidents trophy winner. There reward for winning games by actually playing the game they get the Nashville Predators won 45 games without the shootout. The Predators gambles at the trade deadline by giving a lot up for Forsberg. That said I like the Sharks to go deep in the playoffs.

San Jose in 6.

Now for the rest of the playoffs. I'll give breakdown for the actual match ups then.

Round 2
East
Devils over Islanders in 5
Rangers over Penguins in 7

West
Detroit over Dallas in 6
San Jose over Anaheim in 7

Round 3
East
New Jersey over Rangers in 7

West
San Jose over Detroit in 6

Stanley Cup Finals
New Jersey Devils over San Jose Sharks in 6 (Yea, I'm a homer)

So there are my picks. Don't put too much stock in them Maggie the Monkey will probably out pick me.

A New Point System

In Larry Brooks' column in the New York Post on Sunday he argues that the NHL should go to a new point system where a regulation win gets 2 points a shootout win gets 1 (OT would be eliminated) and a loss of any type gets 0. His argument against the current system is the same as all the other complaints it inflates points, rewards losing, and punishing teams that win in 60. I have never seen his points proposal done so I decided to look at the standing using his format although slightly adjusted because overtime exist.

For the standings below a team gets 2 points for a regulation or OT win, 1 point for a shootout win, and 0 points for a loss of any kind.

UPDATED Through the end of the season

Atlantic	W	L	SW	P
New Jersey	39	33	10	88
Pittsburgh	37	35	10	84
NY Rangers	33	40	9	75
NY Islanders	33	42	7	72
Philadelphia	21	60	1	43

Northeast	W	L	SW	P
Buffalo	43	29	10	96
Ottawa	46	34	2	94
Montreal	36	40	6	78
Toronto	36	42	4	76
Boston	26	47	9	61

Southeast	W	L	SW	P
Carolina	40	42	0	80
Atlanta	36	39	7	79
Tampa	34	38	10	78
Florida	33	47	2	68
Washington	27	54	1	55

Central	W	L	SW	P
Detriot	48	32	2	98
Nashville	45	31	6	96
St. Louis	28	48	6	62
Columbus	28	49	5	61
Chicago	26	50	6	58

Northwest	W	L	SW	P
Vancouver	44	33	5	93
Minnesota	38	34	10	86
Calgary	40	39	3	83
Colorado	39	38	5	83
Edmonton	29	50	3	61

Pacific	W	L	SW	P
San Jose	49	31	2	100
Anaheim	44	34	4	92
Dallas	40	32	9	89
Phoenix	26	51	5	57
Los Angeles	23	55	4	50

Conference Standings:

East
Team	PTS
BUF	96
NJ	88
CAR	80
OTT	94
PITT	84
ATL	79
MON	78
TAM	78
TOR	76
NYR	75
NYI	72
FLA	68
BOS	61
WSH	55
PHI	43

West
Team	PTS
SJ	100
DET	98
VAN	93
NSH	96
ANA	92
DAL	89
MIN	86
CGY	83
COL	83
STL	62
EDM	61
CBJ	61
CHI	58
PHX	57
LA	50

To compare here is the current NHL standings

It's clear why the NHL will never adopt this, the point totals will plummet to lower to what they were before the 1999-2000 bonus point was introduced. There would be only 1 100 point team (San Jose) and only 12-13 (depending on the Colorado result tonight) would be above .500 point percentage wise which makes the league look mediocre. There would be also be a below .500 (with 0 shootout wins) division champion. The reason for the point drop to below the old 2 for a win 1 for a tie format is because you cutting out the tie points in half. If OT was eliminated as Brooks wants points would be even lower.

That said there are some big changes. For one San Jose who will start the playoffs on the road would be the Presidents Trophy winners as the only 100 point team. Carolina who will missed the playoffs would be the Southeast Division champs and would have home ice. Also last nights Montreal and Toronto game would have been meaningless as Montreal would have made it anyways. The Islanders would have finished far back and the Rangers who are the 6th seed would have missed as well.

This system is probably more fair but because of the illusion of more worse teams than there are this won't be adopted in the NHL.

What a Day for Hockey!

Well this is it the final 2 days of the regular season and what is the biggest day of the the season. Most of the playoff spots will be decided today or make it clear for what has to happen tomorrow. The action starts at 1:00 and Battle of New York blog will be live blogging throughout the day so check them out. I will be in and out giving my thoughts. Here are the relevant games to the last Eastern Conference playoff spot and games that affect the Devils.

1:00pm EDT- New York Islanders @ Philadelphia Flyers (Sopcast channels 10599& 17007)- Islanders need win and some help to stay alive.
4:00pm Vancouver Canucks @ San Jose Sharks (CBC/Sopcast 17007& 22078)- Sharks win ensures that Brodeur will hold onto the single season win record.
7:00pm Tampa Bay Lightning @ Atlanta Thrashers (Yahoo.com)- Lightning lose they will play the Devils in the first round. They win they would need a Rangers loss to avoid New Jersey.
7:00pm Michigan State Spartans vs Boston College Eagles (ESPN)- Non-NHL related but this is the NCAA Ice Hockey Championship.
7:30pm New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins (Sopcast 16917)- Rangers win they get the 6th seed and the Devils face the Lightning.
7:00pm Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs (CBC/Sopcast 15678& 22078)- This is the big one Habs vs Leafs for the last playoff spot on Hockey Night in Canada. Toronto must win this game in regulation to stay alive and hope the Isles lose on of their last 2 games. Habs win they are in but if the Leafs win in Overtime they will be eliminated and the Isles could sneak by Montreal with a win this afternoon and a win tomorrow in New Jersey.

There you have it 6 great games to keep an eye on today.
NHL Internet Schedule
NHL.com Scoreboard
NHL on Yahoo

4-6-07 NHL Scoreboard/ Looking to Tomorrow

Talk about laying an egg! In a game the Lightning needed if they wanted to win the Southeast against the Florida Panthers, who are heading to the golf courses next week, they lost 7 to 2. That's right 7-2! It wasn't even that close, 1 minute into the third the Panthers scored to give them a 7-0 lead. Tampa scored two 3rd period goals to make it "close". Meanwhile Atlanta beat Carolina 4-1 clinching the Southeast and the third seed. Back to Tampa however they have to be the worst team going into playoffs. Their goaltending is terrible. I have no clue what Jay Feaster was doing giving Brad Richards a max contracted as a restricted FA when it was clear they needed a top goalie. Now they are going into the playoffs with 2 backup goalies and no starters. I know I said earlier that I thought the Thrashers defense would doom them and they would be one and done but I take that back. The lightning will be the one a done team on the off chance the two meet in round 1. The Lightning will probably get the 7th seed and play the Devils (although it is possible they could get the 6th) so let's hope the Devils penchant for making backup goalies look like Vezina winners doesn't show up in the playoffs.

Moving on to tomorrow. Saturday is probably the biggest day in the NHL as all or most of the playoff spots and seeds will be determined. The headline game is Montreal at Toronto where the winner takes all (sort of)on Hockey Night in Canada. Toronto better be aware of the playoff scenarios going in because if the game is tied late in the third they will need to pull their goalie. If the game goes to overtime Montreal will go to the playoffs. If Toronto wins in regulation they would need Islanders to lose Saturday against Philly or Sunday against the Devils. The Islanders need to win both and have Toronto win Saturday night (in regulation or OT) to get in. Personally nothing would be funnier than the Leafs forgetting they would need to pull the goalie and end up not getting in because the game went to Overtime.